The People's Open

The U.S. Open returns to Bethpage Black, the first truly public course to host a U.S. Open.  The U.S. Open is my favorite tournament, because the players seem to suck during it.  Like a normal person.  And it is America's National Championship.  But the conditions and courses are tough and challenging.  This year's should be fun with the raucous New York/New Jersey crowd.  I'm going two days (Thursday and Saturday) and can't wait.  Here are some predictions for the weekend.

Odds of Tiger winning: 4-1.  He wins about 25% of the U.S. Opens he played in.  That puts it at 4-1 odds.  I think with the rain expected, more players will have a change to challenge him though, as the greens will hold shots.  Ahh, rain, the great equalizer in all sports.

Hole I Hope Works: 7th. A new tee adds 35 yards from 2002 (when the Open was last hosted here) stretching the par 4 to 525 yards.  That's longer than a par 5 on the course.  A 525-yard par-4 is insane.  I hope the scoring average is below 5.2.

Average Score: 74.3  The rain will make it tough.  The rough will be thick.  The sand unforgiving.  The greens will be slower and that might help lower scores, but getting there will be an adventure.

Winning Score: -2. It was -3 when Tiger won at Bethpage in 2002.  I'm feeling -2 this year.  Just a hunch.

Guy I Want To See Win: Phil Mickelson.  He wants it too (obviously).   But this one will be special, as his wife has recently been diagnosed with breast cancer.

Projected Winner: Paul Casey.  Three wins world wide including the BMW PGA Championship, one of Europe's biggest tournaments this year.  He didn't work his way up to No. 3 in the world this year for nothing.  The one thing that's hurting him: he's English.  No European has won the U.S. Open since 1970.

We'll see how these projections go throughout the week.